In a year of astonishing surprises, November 2016 delivered perhaps the biggest: a Donald Trump victory in the US presidential election, followed by rallies in the dollar and global equity markets.
"Long-run prosperity was never in the gift of monetary policy makers. Consensus is growing that escaping this low-growth low-inflation trap will require a re-balancing between monetary, fiscal and structural policies." Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, 22nd September 2016.
Equity markets continued their rollercoaster journey for investors in the second quarter of 2016 with the shock UK referendum result punctuating the quarter end. In the first half of 2016, the MSCI World Index had been particularly volatile, falling 5.0% in the first quarter, before rebounding by 3.6% in the second. It is now only off -1.6% year-to-date, in euro terms. This masks a dramatic 15.3% fall between January and February, which was subsequently offset by a deep value rally of 17.3% from February to the end of May.
The first quarter of 2016 was a volatile start to the year, with January being one of the worst starts to a year on record. While we view the low trajectory of global growth as a continued concern for markets going forward, we can draw some comfort from the fact that many of the risks which flared up in the first quarter are relatively discreet.
This election year in the US is proving to be particularly interesting with the increased likelihood of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump battling it out on 8th November. In this article we discuss our view of what impact the 45th President of the United States will have on the global economy.
The medium-term outlook for global equities remains positive. This view is driven by the persuasive macro background, as discussed in this article.
Today, as we enter 2014, investors seem to be confident about the prospects for another strong year in equities. Many of the conditions necessary for a continuation of the positive market environment we have experienced since late 2011 remain in place, but is this confidence misplaced?
Global equity markets are down some 8% since the late-May peak, with Japan and Emerging Markets down 17% and 11% respectively.